On the eve of the US presidential election, most major polls indicate a very likely win for Joe Biden, although this is not reflected in the cryptocurrency outlook markets.

For Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, the “big difference” between the two is somewhat of a mystery, and he has made three guesses as to why the discrepancy has arisen.

In portraying it as a fortune-telling market or a favorable viewpoint, Buterin suggested that these markets “have properly taken into account the possibility of increased election interference, voter suppression, etc., which affects the outcome.” On the other hand, statistical models can “only assume that the voting process is fair”.

To test this, Buterin asked Nate Silver to understand how statistical models interpret the impact of both “regular” electoral violations, such as voter suppression and the rule of law, and the “irregular” violations that some of the Trump 2020 campaign inferred.

Silver is a statistician and founder and editor-in-chief of the political news site FiveThirtyEight. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a greater chance of winning the election than most sociologists and experts, as well as the traditional gaming markets. At time of publication, Silver has not responded to Buterin’s request.

Putrin’s second guess was that the forecast markets are still too illiquid to be truly accurate. Buterin also referred to the alleged political involvement of market participants in the prediction:

Putrin’s third hypothesis, which he rejected, was that sociologists and other technocrats and analysts are “irreparable idiots who simply did not learn from discovering unexpected voters supporting Trump as he did in 2016.” This, Buterin wrote, “seems unlikely to me self-evident.”

In particular, Buterin and his partner Glenn Well spent a lot of time developing an alternative process of collective decision-making, called quadratic voting, which they claim will be fairer than the current systems.

Ahead of the election, polling website FiveThirtyEight predicted a 10% chance of Trump’s victory. The list of “strange and non-odd opportunities” largely explains the ambiguities in the American college system and the various ways in which the referendum weight is distorted.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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