In its volatility report from August 2020, the US Kraken Exchange predicted that September would yield excessively negative Bitcoin (BTC) returns.

The report notes that September is the worst month for Bitcoin with an average return of -7%. She notes that since Bitcoin has been below average most months in 2020, this month is likely to be worse than usual.

Despite the bleak outlook in the short term, the report points to some glimmers of hope, including that the record share of the Bitcoin supply has not changed in more than 12 months – with Kraken noting that “historically, these dynamics predicted a new beef market. ”

The report added that Bitcoin is likely to experience extreme volatility as markets move away from July in low or “pocket” of volatility:

Twelve times previously, Bitcoin’s annual volatility has fallen to its lowest level between 15% and 30%, and has then risen to an average of 140% and back + 196% for 94 days. By the end of August, 38 days had passed since the volatility level of 23% was set on 24 July, with volatility rising to 44% and price gains + 25%.
The report says: “So history shows that in the coming months we may have enough room for volatility and higher profits.”

Kraken also points out that September has historically had the weakest volatility on average, indicating that Bitcoin may not see accelerated volatility until at least Q4 2020.

However, the Krakens crystal ball is not necessarily a reliable benchmark for future events, as the stock market recently predicted that a 50-200% increase in BTC was inevitable on August 10 when Bitcoin traded between $ 11,500 and $ 12,000, ie only $ 500 from the local top accelerated the recent correction by 20%.

The report noted that Bitcoin was also linked to gold in August to a record high of 0.97, after which it fell to 0.25.

Likewise, Bitcoin maintained a close bond with the S&P 500 most of August. Following the introduction of a local high of 0.84, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 collapsed to minus 0.02, indicating that Bitcoin may differ from the trend in the old markets.

Source: CoinTelegraph