Raphael Schultz Kraft, CTO of the data collection department for cryptocurrency, called a large number of bitcoin market (BTC) market indices “insanely bullish”, with the expected price increase more than 10 times.
On December 9, Scholes-Craft tweeted a thread that served as the basis for its overly optimistic forecast, giving six of the “most important market indicators in the chain that are currently hovering at the same level as in early 2017.”
1 / Where are we in the Bitcoin market cycle #?
Let’s take a look at some of the key online market indicators.
TL; DR: Insanely optimistic, most indicators are not level. If the situation develops as in 2017, we will see more than $ 10 BTC here.
– Rafael Schultz Craft (@ n3ocortex) December 8, 2020
Each Schulze-Craft prediction (or estimate) divides Bitcoin into six numbers, all but one indicating that BTC will exceed $ 200,000.
For both indicators, Schultz-Kraft measured profits when the indicator moved from a similar position in 2017 to reached a record high the same year. He then multiplied the current bitcoin price by the same percentage increase.
Schultz Kraft noted that Bitcoin’s net unrealized gains / losses, or NUPL – “the difference between unrealized gains and losses based on recent coins moved in the chain” has increased again to 78% since ATH 2017.
The Bitcoin price rose 1400% to the top when NUPL rose from its current level to a record 201. If the same scenario is met, Kraft estimates that the Bitcoin price can reach $ 286,000 in this cycle.
Market value of BTC Thermocap ratio, which estimates Bitcoin’s premium over mining costs, is currently a quarter of its highest level in 2017. In 2017, the price of Bitcoin increased 625% as the price rose to a full-time high, indicating that BTC may reach $ 138 000 in the future.
Bitcoin’s Z-Score MVRV, which tries to determine when Bitcoin is “overvalued / undervalued” in relation to “fair value”, is currently 34% of the 2017 high, a jump that was accompanied by a price increase of 1%. 1150%. Kraft-Schulze estimates that if BTC rises as much as it did in 2017, the value of each bitcoin would be $ 240,000.
Kraft-Schulze found that indicators that reflect the fraudster’s long-term behavior indicated higher target prices.
The long-term holder of MVRV, which represents the average profit or loss of all BTCs in circulation, and the long-term holder of SOPR, which represents the total gain and loss of bitcoins as a function of the time each coin was moved along the chain, are both level 13% of its record values. With a 1340% and 1620% increase in the bitcoin price along with these indicators in 2017, Kraft-Schulze expects the price of the cryptocurrency to reach $ 274,000 or $ 328,000 in the future.
The reverse risk used to measure long-term holders’ confidence in the price of [Bitcoin] also indicates an upcoming $ 240,000 rally, with the figure currently only 11% from the previous high.
Nevertheless, Kraft-Schulze urged his supporters to “treat these figures with caution.”
“What it’s aimed at: These #BTC cycle indicators are still far from the values that pointed to the BTC USD Summit in 2017.”
Glassnode’s weekly series report, released on December 8, showed that bitcoin is likely to decline before they rally to a full-time high as investors look at earnings before the latest $ 20,000 review, noting:
“You can expect side movements or reduced price movements because they are profitable.”
Despite the warning of downward pressure from short-term profits, the report concluded that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is optimistic.