The open interest in Bitcoin Options (BTC) for a total of $ 525 million expired on November 13. This is equivalent to last week when the $ 470 million open interest expired in options. This is a somewhat unusual activity, most of which takes place through monthly and quarterly options.
On November 5, open interest for put options was 30% higher than for put options. Deribit Exchange has an open interest of $ 431 million due to expiration this Friday, and Bit.com has $ 72 million.
Before jumping to conclusions about whether a number is bullish or bearish, it is important to take a closer look at measuring potential buy and sell pressures before expiration.
For example, a $ 18,000 call option would not generate much revenue from raising the bitcoin price to $ 16,500 with less than 32 hours before expiration. These options are actually considered useless in the market. The same can be said for the put (put) up to $ 14,000.
By eliminating options above $ 16,700 and placing options below $ 14,400, traders can get a more realistic view of current market conditions.
Deribit offers 5,915 BTC options ranging from $ 14,000 to $ 15,750. Bit.com has 1,050 BTC and OKEx has 490 BTC. Consequently, there is an open interest of $ 117 million to support current levels.
Meanwhile, put options range from 15,250 to 16,500 to 2,130 BTC on Deribit, followed by 860 BTC on Bit.com and another 100 BTC on OKEx. This results in immediate selling pressure of $ 48 million in open interest put.
The reason for this difference is that most puts are amortized and have no market value. This move excludes 84% of open interest in a $ 298 million put option.
Thus, when analyzed only to select an option close to market levels, there is a significant error of $ 69 million in favor of the buying side. As with last week, there were some significant underlying trades that could potentially be linked to the US election.
Regardless of whether the market is strong enough to overcome the $ 16,000 resistance, these short-term options currently support $ 15,500 and up.
OKEx, Bit.com and Deribit weekly contracts expire on November 13 at 08:00 UTC.