New data from Pantera Capital, an investment firm and hedge fund, indicates that current Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are closely watching the stock to trace the path of the model, and the company’s analysts believe BTC will reach $ 115,212 by August 1.

Bitcoin’s parabolic rally may have pushed the price slightly ahead of the pattern’s forecast, and this week’s 28% retracement caused temporary fluctuations across the market, but sharp corrections and short consolidation periods are common in beef markets.

The model focuses on the price effect of events linked to the halving of bitcoins, reducing the number of bitcoins minted per block in half every four years.

According to the model, the effect of decreased supply of bitcoins appears approximately 6 months later in each half. When the Bitcoin price halved on May 11, 2020, the price was around $ 8,000, and after 6 months, BTC was trading above $ 15,000 and was on the verge of parabolizing to a new all-time high.

The chart above shows the change in Bitcoin price in the days following each halving. A similar picture has developed over the past two halves, only by different time periods. BTC’s current performance appears to fall between 2012 cycles in the 2016 market, which could result in Bitcoin price between $ 300,000 and $ 400,000 about 450 days after the last halving, or around August 4.

Mature market signs
Another important difference between this rise from 2017 relates to the overall structure of the market and its value. Most of the current market value is concentrated in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), as institutional investors have chosen by far the most established chains to access the cryptocurrency sector.

Andy Yi, director of state visa policy for Greater China, referred to the event in a tweet in response to the Panthera report:

“This pool is different. According to PanteraCapital, there is a massive shift from highly speculative and dysfunctional tokens in 2017 to #Bitcoin and #Ethereum today.”

As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin and Ether have 86% of the value. The remaining 5,000 networks 14%. While BTC peaked at the end of 2017, the two top currencies contain a total of 52% of their value, indicating that BTC and ETH have strengthened their market share over the past three years.

Potential reasons for this shift in funds include institutional money targeting Bitcoin as an entry point into the cryptocurrency market due to network security and the massive mining infrastructure, as well as the growing decentralized financial ecosystem built largely on the Ethereum network.

As the DeFi ecosystem continues to grow, it will also gain institutional interest, driving up the price of Ether as it is required to interact with all of the DeFi smart contracts and platforms on the Ethereum network.

Data from diffipulse shows that the total value of DeFi is now $ 29.98 billion, which is close to $ 23.116 billion.

As TVL grows, so do the best currencies in the ecosystem, including AAVE and Synthetix (SNX). Volume on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and SushiSwap continues to grow thanks to data from Dune Analytics, which shows that the total weekly DEX volume recently exceeded $ 13 billion.

An institutional influx of bitcoin could lead to a new season of altcoins
While Bitcoin and Ether currently account for 86% of the market value of cryptocurrencies, past market cycles will signal a potential flow of funds from the best cryptocurrencies to promising new ventures. This dynamic has led analysts such as Raul Pal to speculate that “the next leg will be the high-risk alternative” after the bitcoin and ether turmoil spikes.

The media also reported that rumors that Goldman Sachs is gearing up to offer cryptocurrency storage services could set the stage for the next round of hype around Bitcoin. A steady influx of corporate-class funds could be a catalyst that will drive the bitcoin price up and in line with the equity-to-energy model estimates.

Source: CoinTelegraph