Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week above $20,000, but it is heading to a new bearish record as a major support level remains elusive.
After a quiet weekend punctuated by a brief rally to nearly $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the June 24 closing price for the CME futures markets.
Thus, the “round trip” allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of the last trading session on Wall Street last week, but what might be in store for them in the coming days?
A familiar mix of macro threats and persistent bearish tendencies is making the current climate far from ideal for the average temperate. Despite seeing some relief last week, the crypto markets are still bearing the brunt of the recession, which has increasingly defined overall sentiment throughout 2022.
With the June monthly closing fast approaching, meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market catalysts for the next week as inflation rages on, and cryptocurrencies struggle to regain their footing.
Traders expect July to provide “catalysts” for the price of Bitcoin
“Indifference” is a good word to describe the general sense of resignation among Bitcoin traders this week.
While the weekend saved the average trader with more unwelcome surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the fact that BTC/USD is far from where anyone would want it – even in a bear market.
With the major 200-week moving average (WMA) not coming in, there is a precious bit of bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Crypto Fear & Greed indicator that remains firmly in control.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
“BTC will give up in the next six months and hit the bottom of the cycle ($14-21K), then cut into $28-40K for most of 2023 and be at $40K again by the next halving.” Venturefounder, a contributing analyst at the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, was summarized in a piece of Twitter update June 27.
Venturefounder’s thesis is indicative of a broader belief that the bottom has not yet reached Bitcoin, and that any moves to ease are exactly that – deviations on the way to lower levels sucking capital from market novices and weak hands.
Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next major bout of volatility across crypto assets and risks.
Not much is happening overnight on Bitcoin, but I’m expecting a very slow week due to the lack of catalysts right now, emphasized popular Crypto trader Tony:
“July will be more than a month full of excitement for volatility due to the catalysts coming.”
For Arthur Hayes, the ex-CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is the period when the macro stars will line up to punish scammers once again.
In a blog post earlier in June, he cited the US Federal Reserve’s massive interest rate hike and balance sheet cut as providing the main backdrop to the risky assets nightmare.
By June 30 (end of the second quarter), the Fed will have decided to raise the interest rate by 75 basis points and start shrinking its balance sheet. The Fourth of July falls on a Monday, which is a federal and bank holiday. Hayes cautioned that this is the perfect setup for another massive crypto dump.
And so a “road trip to the downside” could be just days away.
As reported by Cointelegraph, the popular consensus for a real price bottom is focused on the $14,000-$16,000 region, but $11,000 has also emerged, which corresponds to a drop of 84.5% against Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
How normal is this bear?
As some panic sells their bitcoins, analysts are striving to show that so far, there is nothing unusual about the scope of the bitcoin bear market.
Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research article, a “bear of historical proportions,” called for calm on below $20,000 bitcoin.
“Historically, bear market lows were set with BTC withdrawing from -75% to -84% of ATH, 260 days in 2019-20, to 410 days in 2015,” she wrote:
“With the current pullback down to -73.3% below November 2021 ATH, lasting between 227 and 435 days, this bear market is now within historical parameters and volume.”
What characterizes the current climate is not Bitcoin itself, but the reactions of investors to price changes.
Despite the losses remaining within historical parameters, BTC sales have surpassed previous records with losses.
Glassnode noted that “the recent price crash into the $20,000 region marked the largest daily US dollar loss in history.”
“Collectively, investors lost $4.234 billion in one day, which is a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3.457 billion set in mid-2021.”
In terms of BTC, the losses amount to the third largest in Bitcoin history.