‘Final week of the bear rally’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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At around $24,300, the weekly close on August 14 was the best in two months for BTC/USD.

The weekly chart shows that a persistent bullish grind continues to take shape after the June lows, and last week’s candlestick totaled around $1,100, or 4.8%.

An impressive move by 2022, gains triggered some overnight volatility on the first Wall Street trading day of the week, and BTC/USD continued to hit $25,200 on exchanges before reversing significantly below the weekly close.

BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Such moves have characterized recent days, bringing little surprise to traders who continue to act cautiously on shorter time frames.

Popular Crypto trading account Tony summed up part of his latest Twitter update that day: “A new week begins, with bears so far in to retest some key levels”:

“Once again we should see an interesting week with the price action. All over the store in the lower time frames.”
If the unpredictability persists, the chances of a downward movement are clear, according to the material indicators of the on-chain monitoring resource.

After the close, the weekly chart started showing “downward momentum,” he warned, while the daily time frames were “flat” according to his trading tools.

Its creator, Materials Scientist, described this week as “the final week of the Bear Walk” in his own comments.

Still a much deeper correction – perhaps not surprising – is gold expert Peter Schiff, who confirmed that $10,000 is still on the cards.

However, in the longer term, fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital has been quiet about BTC’s price action.

He said that the spot rate below $25,000 should be used for the dollar cost average (DCA) to bitcoin — buying a set amount for each specified period — until the next subsidy halving occurred in 2024.

“To succeed in Crypto, you need a dollar-cost averaging strategy, investment thesis, vision, and patience,” he told his Twitter followers over the weekend:

“My DCA strategy is anything under $25,000. My pitch is based on the 2024 halving event which sees a bull peak a year later than the halving. Right now I’m just impatient.”
The macro is still on the “knife edge”
After reading last week’s US inflation, the next five trading days look relatively calm from a macro perspective.

The Fed is calm, letting only unexpected events in Europe or Asia affect market performance.

However, the likelihood that cryptocurrencies will continue to react quickly to the macro stimuli behind inflation may actually be lower than many believe, according to a popular analyst.

In a new market update for his trading suite, DecenTrader Filbfilb looks at the decreasing correlation between BTC and what he calls “old markets” more broadly.

“Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the legacy markets as shown below with the S&P500 in white and the NASDAQ in blue, but since the recent bottom all the downside has been restored in the legacy markets and Bitcoin has failed to follow suit,” he wrote, along with Comparative graph.

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq mini futures vs. S&P 500 futures chart. Source: TradingView
Filbfilb added that since its June lows at $17,600, bitcoin has not actually risen as strongly as the previous relationship would have dictated, noting that the spot price should be above $30,000.

The reason lies in the Terra and Celsius disaster, providing something of a perfect storm if taken together with concerns about inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it.

“What has not changed, is bitcoin’s tendency to be at the mercy of the Fed’s anti-inflation policy. Better-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday was the latest example, allowing bitcoin to jump north, along with stocks,” the update continued:

“Going forward, CPI data and subsequent monetary policy decisions will continue to be of paramount importance in determining what happens next.”
Geopolitical factors, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tensions over Taiwan and a looming European energy crisis, provide further risk factors. Filbfilb concluded that the overall market situation remains on the “knife edge”.

Meanwhile, news from China came in against today’s trend, which enacted a surprise rate cut on the back of disappointing economic data.

“The July economic data is very worrying,” Raymond Young, Greater China Economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., told Bloomberg in response:

“The authorities need to provide full property support for the Covid policy in order to stem further economic deterioration.”
Meanwhile, Lex Moskovsky, CEO of Moskovski Capital, predicted that all central banks would end up cutting rates, not raising them:

He replied, “They will all turn.”

Financing rates are good despite reaching $25,000
Taking a look at the impact of the current spot price action on trading habits, in the meantime, it looks like conditions may still favor more upside.

Derivatives Market Analysis Philip Swift, Creator at DecenTrader and Founder of Data Resource Look at Bitcoin, hig

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