Bitcoin (BTC) continues to test $ 10,000 support after the weekend, and consolidates after a big fall – what’s next?
Cointelegraph looks at the key determinants that will influence BTC price behavior in the coming week.
Emperor: US currency index should fall below 80
Last weekend saw a big change in BTC / USD, with the pair losing over 15% from $ 12,050 to a rebound of $ 9,900.
The weekend did not result in a major rebound as several tests were run to $ 9,900 before Bitcoin returned to five digits.
On Friday, one of the macroeconomic factors changed – the dollar index (DXY), which began to rise after reaching its lowest level in two years.
DXY measures US dollars against a basket of currencies from US trading partners. One week ago, the Fed’s inflation report had a bearish effect on the index, but last week fate changed dramatically – at the expense of safe havens.
DXY was at 92.95 as of September 7, after rising to 93.25 over the weekend. For host RT Max Keizer, new bitcoin losses should occur – the inverse correlation between cryptocurrency and DXY should remain.
“We need DXY to cross level 80 to get real fireworks in bitcoin and gold,” he said in a tweet.
Keizer added that the development in the ongoing Brexit saga could also have a positive impact on BTC next month. If the EU takes a tough stance on the UK, the euro could benefit and put pressure on the DXY.
“We hope the EU (UK) will slow down in October to liberalize growth in the euro. This will help Bitcoin a lot. ”
Tough times for politics in Europe
When it comes to geopolitics, several events this week could lead the markets, with Bitcoin interacting step by step.
In addition to not preparing for Brexit negotiations, the EU will consider economic policy while the European Central Bank (ECB) meets to discuss alternatives.
As the Cointelegraph notes, the ECB’s sphere of influence has been cut back for the first time since 2016. The focus will now be on whether copying the US approach is appropriate for the eurozone.
As Bloomberg reported on Monday, the overall global economic recovery from the once huge coronavirus crash in March is on its way.
“High-frequency data paints a picture of a quick recovery in the second quarter and a break where activity remains well below pre-viral activity in the third quarter,” said Tom Orlik, chief economist at the magazine.
To return to normal pre-virus, he added that all that works is the coronavirus vaccine.
The CME gap opens at $ 10,600.
This weekend I introduced a classic bitcoin price trigger that could look back on a short-term trend.
CME Group Bitcoin futures closed at $ 10,615 on Friday, but reopened at $ 10,430.
The resulting “gap” in the market offers the potential for little growth from today’s $ 10,000 levels – if Bitcoin follows historical patterns, the vacuum should not last long.
The first fall below $ 10,000 raised hopes of bridging the only $ 9700 non-regulatory gap. As for Michael Van de Pope, an analyst at Cointelegraph Markets, $ 10,000 must be shared to make this possible.
“Holding $ 10,000 should provide a short-term recovery in the $ 10,800-10,900 region,” he told Twitter followers on Sunday.
“Break through $ 10,000, and the market will immediately move toward a CME break, and we see an average of $ 9,000.”
The basics see nothing but a humble fall
Bitcoin network basics appear to have taken a breather this week as miners consider the price drop.
According to the monitoring resources of BTC.com and the Blockchain chain, hashing complexity and speed will drop to record highs.
The next automatic difficulty adjustment will take place on Monday and see a negative pull of 1.7%. The complexity is currently at a full-time high, which confirms the overall competitiveness of the Bitcoin network.
Meanwhile, the hash speed reached its absolute peak in mid-August, but has fallen somewhat since then – currently around 122 hours per second (EH / s).