Let’s take a quick look at some attractive patterns on the weekly time frame.

Is It Time For Litecoin’s Hybium Halving?

LTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
As a fork of Bitcoin, Litecoin
LTC

pointers down
$63.25

It tends to be bullish several months before the bonus halving happens, as it was in 2015 and 2019.

The next Litecoin reward halving is 237 days away and the altcoin appears to be in a pre-halving buzz phase. Since November 6, LTC has gained 58.6% and started to reverse the triple price action that occurred in the previous halving.

The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA) indicator on the daily time frame has also turned green – which is rare.

From a technical analysis point of view, LTC maintains a trend of higher lows, consolidation, and a bull pennant breakout, which is then followed by further consolidation.

If LTC maintains its current market structure and continues to walk along the 20-day moving average, its price may see a rally before the halving, reaching the $100-125 region.

The ether charts its own course
The ETH/BTC weekly time frame is showing some notable developments. Depending on how one looks at it, there can be a nice inverted head and shoulders shape.

ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
One could also argue that the weekly ETH/BTC flashes a massive cup and handle pattern.

ETH/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Like Litecoin, the ETH/BTC Weekly GMMA Index has been bright green since Aug. 8, nearly four months.

ETH/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView
The price movement of Ether in its USD/Bitcoin pair is surprising, especially given the state of the broader market.

Despite this short-term bullish outlook, the price of ETH could be affected by red flags such as censorship of the Ethereum blockchain, US Office of Foreign Assets Control compliance, ETH’s performance in the supposed deflationary post-merger environment, concerns about the possibility of US securities and futures trading commission change. Commodities and commission exchanges have their point of view on ether being a commodity.

The data on the chain tells an interesting story
Looking at the on-chain data provides a little bit of color. Data from Glassnode shows that since November 7, Ethereum addresses with balances greater than 32 ETH, 1,000 ETH, and 10,000 ETH have been in an upward trend.

ETH address balances. Source: glassnode
While the rebound is small, it is important to monitor growth metrics such as new Ethereum addresses, daily active users, and increases in a variety of balance pools and the percentage of earnings holders as they may eventually signal a change in trend and sentiment.

Comparing these metrics with volume, price, and other technical analysis indicators can help investors get a more comprehensive view of whether opening a position in ETH is a good idea.

The MVRV Z-Score of ETH is also flashing some signs. Similar to the analysis of Bitcoin on-chain, the MVRV Z-Score examines the current market value of an asset against the price at which investors bought it.

The metric can indicate when an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its fair value, and tends to indicate market peaks when the market value is well above the maximum realized.

According to the three-year MVRV Z-Score chart below, the Z-Score is back in the green.

ETH MVRV Z-Score. Source: glassnode
Related: Approach with caution: Crypto warning from US banking regulator

Given the uncertainty in the market, concerns about strict cryptocurrency regulation, and unresolved threats of insolvency, bankruptcy, and contagion from the FTX debacle, it is difficult to say whether the time has come for ETH to move forward.

Risk averse traders looking to pull the trigger might consider spot buying and spot selling through futures contracts. This way, if a person is long-term bullish on ETH, they can build a position while also hedge against a short-term downtrend.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and Cointelegraph’s resident newsletter author. Every Friday, Big Smokey writes market insights, trending how-to, analysis and early research on potential emerging trends in the cryptocurrency market.

LEAVE A REPLY