Bitcoin (BTC) starts the week above $ 11,000 while still holding new earnings – will the $ 12,000 or the next bears take over?
The Cointelegraph takes into account five factors that could help determine whether this week will be bullish or bearish in Bitcoin pricing.
The US election may fetch dollars in 2018
Bitcoin remains a big feeder as the fourth quarter continues and the US campaign could cause significant disruptions.
Analysts say the results of the Democrats’ victory look grim for the macro index, particularly the US dollar index (DXY).
In a report released on October 12, cited by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs warned that Joe Biden’s entry into the White House could scare markets early by cutting DXY to its lowest level in 2018.
Bitcoin has historically seen a strong inverse relationship with DXY, so new downturns could be a boon for inventors. In August, the BTC / USD high reached $ 12,500, while DXY fell just over 92 pips. In 2018, it is down 89-4% less than today.
Additionally, the introduction of a coronavirus vaccine will prevent the dollar from strengthening rather than helping it.
“The risk is skewed to the dollar’s weakness, and we see a relatively low chance for the more positive for the dollar – a Trump victory coupled with a significant delay in vaccinations,” Goldman strategists wrote.
The “blue wave” of the US election and positive news about the timing of vaccines could return the trade-weighted dollar and DXY to its lowest level in 2018. ”
Cointelegraph reported last week that regardless of who wins in November, the coffers will benefit from the election results, as the analyst expects the target price of gold at $ 4,000.
Currency Index for the six-month chart of the US dollar. Source: TradingView
Europe is fighting Brexit and the Coronavirus
In the case of the Coronavirus, the new restrictions in force in Europe will lead to a number of economic problems.
With the “second wave” clearly underway, many countries are looking to re-shutdown procedures this week.
Amidst the turmoil, last-minute Brexit negotiations have unsettled the UK, with only a few days left for the deadline to reach some form of consensus on leaving the EU.
In the US, politicians have so far failed to agree on a new eagerly awaited stimulus package after Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin confirmed the issuance of a new $ 1,200 stimulus check.
Despite the darkness, stocks and S&P 500 futures were up 0.25% ahead of Monday’s opening. China is advancing, as the yuan weakens and investors hope President Xi Jinping’s upcoming speech will attract additional foreign investment.
The high hash rate leads to the base currency Bitcoin
The Bitcoin Network fundamentals are not so bleak this week. Depending on the calculations used, the hash rate reached new levels over the weekend, indicating more computing power is dedicated to mining than ever before.
According to Bitinfocharts and Blockchain monitoring sources, the hash rate is up to 155 beats per second (EH / s). 130 EH / s is a ten-fold increase over the period BTC / USD reached an all-time high of $ 20,000 in December 2017.
The hash rate is difficult to measure accurately, and different tools produce different results, but the path is clear: Bitcoin miners are optimistic.
As Cointelegraph often states, a popular theory is that higher retail rates and sudden spikes in network problems tend to cause Bitcoin prices to spike later.
“The right hash-adjusted price of Bitcoin is now roughly.” Max Kieser, a major proponent of the theory, said last week, “$ 32,000 per coin.”
“After we beat that oversupply in 2018 and replaced our old laundry supplies, we’ll see a new ATH.”
Complexity is yet to show signs that it will follow the hash rate of new records in the short term – estimates on Monday showed that the next change will not be either up or down like the previous one.
According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, investor sentiment towards Bitcoin is gradually rising.
Market indication data shows that after August that triggered hyper-rhythmic warnings, the ensuing pullback is now balanced.
The index settled at 52 on Monday after reaching 50 for the first time since September 21 at the end of this week.
This puts investor sentiment in the “neutral” zone – a relief compared to the “extreme greed” in August and the “subsequent fear.”