Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another day of almost imperceptible range for BTC/USD just below $17,000.
The pair struggled to break out despite several potential catalysts coming from the US economic data releases.
With the holiday season approaching, Santa Claus’s rise seemed unlikely, while the lack of important upcoming events reduced the chances of surprise swings.
However, in an analysis over the weekend, Michael Van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, emphasized the possibility of a move higher towards $17,500 if current levels hold.
“Bitcoin is still holding its levels here as we flipped $16,750 for support,” he told his Twitter followers.
“If that holds (and doesn’t drop sharply to $16.4K), I think we will still be able to see the uptrend continue to $17.4K.”
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe / Twitter
Meanwhile, popular analytics account On-Chain College released a list of key levels to watch in the short term, with most of them falling.
It included the realized price — the total price at which the BTC supply last moved — along with the balanced price, which expresses the difference between the realized price and the current spot price. The figures reached $19,900 and $15,250 respectively on December 23rd.
Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: On-Chain College / Twitter
Conversely, fellow Crypto Poseidon trader advised potential buyers to stay away from the current range altogether.
He commented on the weekly chart: “Whatever the reason, long-term purchases below $19K will waste a lot of time.”
“There are two specific levels for immediate buying; above 19k or below 12k.”
Wu: The bear market may not last much longer than 2015
Looking at where the current downtrend could end, meanwhile Willy Woo, creator of on-chain analytics resource Woobull, had some potentially good news for holders of long-term contracts (LTHs).
Related: Decreased Bitcoin Volume Sparks BTC Price Warning as Gauge Reaches ‘Value Zone’
The Bitcoin bear market will probably end before it becomes the longest ever, he argued the other day, likening this year’s events to those of 2013.
“The main question I have is how long will this cycle’s backlog zone be,” he wrote on Twitter.
“Judging from all the blowouts, it’s akin to 2013 with the MtGox crash (remember 90%+ of BTC was traded there). I suspect it will be longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
The accompanying chart showed the cost basis for LTHs — defined as entities that transact in coins for 155 days or more — and short-term coin holders (STHs), respectively.
Annotated chart based on the cost of BTC/USD. Source: Willy Woo / Twitter
The “premium” that results from LTH cost basis rising above STH cost basis has historically been consistent with periods of lower overall BTC prices.