In a tweet dated December 17, the creator of Puell Multiple argued that the stage is almost ready for the end of the bear market for BTC price.

Puell: Bitcoin Network Activity ‘Disappointing’
Despite calls for fresh BTC/USD lows at $12,000 or below this cycle, not everyone is completely pessimistic about the Bitcoin outlook.

For Boyle, two fundamental on-chain phenomena are necessary to recover the Bitcoin price.

Long-term holders (LTHs) are resisting the urge to sell even though Bitcoin is down more than 70% from its last all-time high.

At the same time, the short-term “scalpers” are feeling sharp pain from the recent price action. As Cointelegraph reported, it’s likely that these “tourists” have mostly gone from the market.

Boyle believes that all that is missing is more network activity from all participants.

“In the chain, three factors are needed for the bull: 1. Behaviors derived from long-term investors. 2. Painful losses from short-term speculators. 3. Network activity across the board,” he summed up.

“Seeing 1 and 2.3 in person is still frustrating.”
He added that “favorable” macro conditions will help in the transformation, as well as for cryptocurrencies to become more resilient in the face of “infections” in the form of external and internal “swans”.

BTC/USD is trading at around $16,700 at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-hour candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin halving cycle like any other?
This perspective chimes with others calling for calm on BTC’s current price performance.

Related: Bitcoin Targets $16.7K Amid Fears BNB Could ‘Drag the Entire Crypto Market Down’

Among them is a popular mitigation-resistant analytics account that drew attention today to BTC/USD simply copying past bear market behavior.

The proof came in the form of the Bitcoin MVRV-z Score – an expression of the market value of the realized market value in standard deviations. Dilution Resistance initially called the metric “Market Value-to-Realised-Value Temperature (MVRVT)”.

For now, the accompanying charts have shown that the signs point to a classic bear market bottom forming, mitigating proof stating that Bitcoin is “doing what it does on the post-halving date, literally every cycle.”

Bitcoin Market Value Realized Value Temperature Chart (MVRVT). Source: Dilution-proof / Twitter
Cointelegraph previously included MVRV-z in its list of “stunning similarities” between 2022 and previous price cycles.