Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching the final weekly candle for August. Some traders believe that Bitcoin’s performance over the next two weeks could determine whether the price falls back below $ 10,000 or whether the uptrend extends.
The weekly candlestick close coincides with the expiration of bitcoin futures and deribit options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It’s likely to set a precedent for September, especially if Bitcoin closes above or below key levels.
In the short term, technical analysts generally consider $ 11,800 to be the primary level for Bitcoin. Closing the higher timeframe below the level would increase the likelihood of a deeper retreat. If you hold a green monthly candle over it, Bitcoin can go up again.
Mohit Sarout, co-founder of Petazo Capital, said in a tweet that the increase to $ 11,800 would “put sellers asleep”. Surout pointed to the daily chart of Bitcoin with Bollinger Bands, which is of interest to both buyers and sellers.
With only a few days left until the end of the month, the Bitcoin futures market remains cautious. As a rule, long contract holders are more numerous on the futures market than short sellers. Bybt data shows that long trades make up 53.36% of the market, indicating that traders are cautious and starting September with three key scenarios.
Bitcoin’s short-term bullish scenario
In order for Bitcoin to be able to maintain its upward momentum in the short term, according to BTC, traders must above all recover above the support level of USD 11,800. In this case, traders expect another possible move to $ 12,500. However, some other traders believe that Bitcoin’s main support trendline puts the next support area at around $ 10,900. So if BTC stays above the $ 10900-11,500 range, the short-term bullish scenario will be maintained.
The cryptocurrency trader known as “John Wick” believes that investors are not considering higher time frames. The weekly chart, using the Bitcoin low of $ 3,600 in March and $ 9,130 locally in July as basis points, shows a supportive trendline. As long as the trend line is not broken so strongly in the short term, the trader indicated in a tweet that this could be an optimistic market structure.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency analyst Nonia Business has proposed a similar scenario on a higher timeframe. If the current monthly candlestick structure is following previous patterns, the analyst believes that there is a chance it may signal the start of a new uptrend. This could indicate that Bitcoin price could rise steadily over the next six to twelve months, he tweeted:
“Monthly BTC: VWAP consolidates at previous cycle highs. A successful retest of AVWAP resulted in bull markets. Will current month retest and this time lead to bullish rally? Note: gray vertical line = half.”
However, one variable in expectations for a similar increase for 2017 is that the second half of the year occurred in mid-2016. If a similar trend emerges, the chances that Bitcoin will see a suitable rally in late 2021 are higher than next winter.
Cautiously bearish BTC case
In the short term, traders are showing the first signs of caution after Bitcoin fell below $ 11,500. A trader known as “Mayne” said Bitcoin’s initial drop to $ 11,400 is not a trend the bulls want to see. Since then, Bitcoin has seen a streakingly falling bullish pattern that usually shows slowed momentum. Mayne tweeted, “The price is on a false high breakout and the stairs are going back now. The last two steps up look like straight down tests. If this is the distribution, expect the sales speed soon. Cops must enter and get back $ 11.7. ”
Bitcoin daily chart with key levels
A lower high formation indicates that the price has peaked at a price lower than the previous high. The Bitcoin daily candle closed at $ 11,748 on August 24, while the next three daily candles all closed below $ 11,500, forming a high-low pattern. Bitcoin would have to break above $ 11,800 to cancel the lower uptrend, making it critical short-term levels.