The expanded tax, health and climate bill was approved in August, and also includes subsidies for electric vehicles and battery supply chains made in North America.

According to CNBC, this isn’t the first time Europe has voiced concerns, citing international trade rules and “discriminatory” policies.

There is additional uncertainty coming from the US midterm elections on November 8, which will determine which party controls Congress. Right now, Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, but changing that situation could ease President Biden’s future spending plans.

In other news, Apple announced a temporary cut in iPhone 14 production due to COVID-19 restrictions in China. To put things in perspective, Apple’s $2.2 trillion market capitalization has surpassed the sum of Alphabet (Google) and Amazon.

Let’s take a look at the Bitcoin derivatives data to understand whether the deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions have affected cryptocurrency investors.

Professional traders were not enthusiastic about a rally above $21,000
Quarterly futures contracts are usually avoided by retail traders due to their price difference from the spot markets. However, they are preferred tools for professional traders because they prevent the volatility of funding rates that often occurs in perpetual futures contracts.

The 3-month Bitcoin futures annual premium. Source: Laevitas
The three-month futures APR should be trading at +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover the associated costs and risks. The chart above shows that derivatives traders have been neutral to the downside over the past week as the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 2.5% throughout.

More importantly, the metric did not improve after BTC surged 7% between November 3rd and November 5th to test the $21,500 resistance. This price level was the highest since September 13, and thus the data reflects the unwillingness of professional traders to add long positions (bull) with leverage.

Related: Cryptocurrencies No Longer Among Top 10 Most Cited Potential Risks: US Central Bank Report

Margin markets show the resilience of bulls
Traders should also analyze the margin trading markets to understand how professional traders position themselves. Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrencies to leverage their trading position. For example, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to purchase an additional bitcoin position.

Bitcoin borrowers, on the other hand, can only short the cryptocurrency because they are betting that its price will fall. However, unlike futures contracts, the balance between long and margin positions is not always identical.

OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX
The data shows that OKX traders’ marginal lending ratio remained relatively stable at 8 for the past week. On the one hand, the indicator is somewhat worrying, as it gave a rise from $20,050 to $21,475 on November 5, which should have had a positive effect on the margin lending ratio. The current 8.1 level leaves enough room for sustainable leverage buying pressure when the time comes.

The metric remains bullish by the stablecoin borrowing preference by a wide margin. In short, professional traders have been holding bullish positions using stable margin lending.

Futures and margin metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $21,000 support wasn’t enough to panic professional traders. The data also shows a modest degree of indifference as the recent rally of 7% towards $21,500 was not accompanied by higher demand for long positions.

The bears continue to exert their strength even as the elusive $25,000 daily close approaches. Until macroeconomic conditions and political uncertainty dominate the headlines, the bulls are unlikely to have high hopes for a more sustainable rally.

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