For now, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures on Friday at $ 622 million appears to fit well.

CME Bitcoin (BTC) options totaling $ 100 million will expire on Friday. 58% of these are call options, which means that buyers can purchase BTC futures contracts at a fixed rate.

Calls at 10% or more of the current BTC price are worthless as expiration approaches. Consequently, there will be little benefit in moving this position to October.

Each contract represents CME 5 BTC and the chart above shows the most important levels for the September options.

Note that just over 86% of it is set at $ 11,300 and above. As such, these options are currently priced at $ 10 or less.

This means the CME option expires less, with $ 8 million in call open options ranging from $ 10,000 to $ 11,000.

On the other hand, put options with the same range come in at $ 12 million with open interest. Since the buy and sell options are relatively balanced, there should be little or no overall impact. Hence, it is imperative to verify the remaining exchanges to analyze the effect of alternate expiration.

As the leader in the options market, Deribit owns 75% of the equity, which equates to $ 554 million in open interest in BTC options that expires on Friday. This number is evenly distributed between the buy (buy) and sell options.

In contrast to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Deribit dealers were more modest as only 70% of call options had a stake in September of $ 11,250 or more. For those $ 10,000 to $ 11,000, $ 74 million adds calls for $ 110 million in put options.

While Deribit is more important than CME, the $ 26 million imbalance does not appear to matter given BTC’s base size of $ 2 billion.

Futures expire, but there can be no imbalance
A futures contract is a completely different tool than options, in that the buyers and sellers must always match.

Although all contracts are equal, perpetual futures contracts (inverse swaps) do not expire. It is simply balanced out every 8 hours, which means that there is no effect on shelf life.

On the other hand, some derivative exchanges offer regular futures contracts with monthly expiration dates. Unlike the options markets, these traders can keep their positions open by scrolling through them before expiry.

CME has $ 284 million in BTC futures due on Friday, although that amount should be reduced as traders move positions to the October and November contracts.

OKEx leads the rest of the exchanges with $ 147 million, while Deribit has $ 73 million, Huobi has $ 63 million, and BitMEX has $ 46 million.

Going forward, the total open interest of $ 622 million in Bitcoin futures on Friday looks quite appropriate given that (regular) spot exchanges maintain a daily volume of $ 2 billion.

CME expires Friday There is no longer a threat
For most of 2018 and 2019, there has been a fairly steady drop in the bitcoin price before each month of CME expires. A recent study by Cointelegraph showed that such movements have ceased to exist since October 2019.

To further expose CME’s negative pricing theory, let’s look at the last three expiration dates.

June was the only month that posted a 2% return before the contract expired. Meanwhile, both July and August delivered positive returns, thus challenging any negative expectations.

The data above shows that traders should be less concerned about the expiration of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as it doesn’t appear to have any significant impact in the previous months. Most likely, the strong correlation with the S&P 500 was the main reason for the CME’s decline.

For 86% of CME’s worthless call options, these buyers are likely to have less desire for an upcoming opening. Hence, Friday’s mood is likely to have a negative impact on the future.

OKEx and Deribit weekly contracts expire September 25 at 08:00 (UTC). Later that day, the CME futures contract expires at 15:

Source: CoinTelegraph

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