Bitcoin (BTC) is down as much as 10% this week, and while this may be scary for day traders, the 3-day chart shows that the downtrend has barely affected the current market structure.

This is especially true given the $ 12,500 level hasn’t been hit in over 13 months. Analysts are currently targeting price of $ 16,000, in part due to the CME gap and expectations of higher inflation in the US.

The graph above shows how insignificant the negative performance over the past 10 days is from a broader perspective. Bitcoin (BTC) is up 48% since the start of the year, and there is no evidence of its weakness. The largest daily decline in the past five months was -6.4% on August 2nd.

Shareholders are not impressed with the recent volatility
While short-term traders are skeptical about whether the August 28 expiration of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange caused the decline of recent days, data on the chain shows that its holders are stronger than ever.

63% of UTXOs haven’t been touched in over a year, which is unprecedented. These airlines saw a 53% decline in the 30 days leading up to March 13, but even the Black Thursday collapse didn’t cause them to move their bitcoins.

Options markets are showing little sign of tension
The options markets offer real-time sentiment from leading traders and arbitrage trading counters. Delta Deviation 25% is the main “fear and greed” indicator in the options markets as it measures how expensive it is to protect yourself from negative price fluctuations compared to positive prices.

These put options, which allow buyers to sell Bitcoin at a fixed price at a later date, are currently 6% more expensive than a similar purchase option. Although the instrument is not as optimistic as the spread of 13% measured at the beginning of this month, the indicator for the delta deviation of 25% can still be interpreted as bullish.

The top traders are still net
Some exchanges offer long to short net position data for large traders. This is a great way to gauge whether professional traders are more bullish or bearish.

While each futures market is balanced between buyers (buy) and sellers (short), large traders typically have risks that are spread across multiple markets.

The long positions / shorts of the top traders. Source: Binance, OKEx and Cointelegraph

The big traders Binance and OKEx have taken an optimistic stance since July 27th. This is an impressive feat in itself, as Bitcoin price fell sharply by $ 1,500 on August 2nd.

Less liquidations on the futures markets
By measuring the liquidation of futures contracts in the event of negative price fluctuations, it is possible to estimate how vulnerable the buyers (long positions) are. Keep in mind that there has been 9% or more of the intraday price fluctuations four times in the past three months.

Had these traders been surprised with a leverage of 10x or higher, they would have been forcibly liquidated long ago. Therefore, the open interest in the futures contract is greatly reduced.

Total open positions in Bitcoin futures have increased 166% over the past five months to $ 4.8 billion. These data provide additional evidence that the whales were not filtered due to the recent negative 10% movement.

Every top half has occasional corrections
Certainly there will be some selling pressure as Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates after the 28% rally in the last two weeks of July. Even during the massive three-month rally of 240% that began in early April 2019, there were four cases of short-term corrections of 9% or more.

However, both the data on the chain and the sentiment of the large derivatives trader remain bullish. This suggests that the market will move either neutral or higher over the next two weeks.

Source: CoinTelegraph

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